Assessments for Basra Heavy and Basra Medium fell by more than four dollars a barrel on Tuesday 10 November 2026. Heavy reached $51.61 and Medium $55.61, as global oil prices dropped to their lowest level in about two months.
According to market data followed by Al-Mada newspaper, Heavy fell by $4.05, or 7.28 percent, from $55.66 in the previous assessment. Medium fell by 6.79 percent, a similar loss of $4.05. These are market assessments and do not necessarily represent the final price of cargoes, since sales differ by destination, contract, discounts, and freight and insurance costs.
Reasons for the fall
The fall followed remarks by US President Donald Trump in which he played down the likelihood of new strikes on Iran for now. Traders cut the risk premium tied to disruption of Middle East supplies. Al-Mada, citing Reuters, reported that Brent fell about 2 percent to around $90.64.
The State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) lowered its official selling prices for December cargoes to Asia. It widened the discount on Basra Medium to $8.80 a barrel against the average of Oman and Dubai, compared with $2.80 in November. For Heavy, the discount rose to $11.80, compared with $5.80.
Impact on the budget
This comes as the draft 2027 budget is under discussion. It estimates spending at about IQD 217 trillion, based on an estimated price of $58 a barrel, exports of 4.2 million barrels a day, and oil revenues of about IQD 144 trillion. The Basra Medium assessment is therefore about $2.39 below the budget price, and Heavy about $6.39 below.
According to a theoretical calculation given by Al-Mada, a fall of one dollar in the price of a barrel, at exports of 3.5 million barrels a day, means about $3.5 million a day. That is more than $100 million a month, before accounting for differences in contracts and discounts and for transport costs.
Exports had risen to about 3.5 million barrels a day in October, from about 2.65 million in September. But a recovery in volumes does not mean a return of revenues, as wider discounts may reduce the actual return per barrel. The current volume is below the 4.2 million barrels the draft assumes, so the oil revenue line in the budget may face pressure from both price and volume.