Climate Change and Migration in the Land of Two Rivers

Climate Change and Migration in the Land of Two Rivers

• Water Scarcity: Iraq has experienced a 10% decrease in average annual rainfall, and the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers—its primary water sources—has decreased by over 40%. These changes undermine Iraq's agricultural systems and threaten the livelihoods of millions of people who rely on irrigation for crop cultivation.
• Drought and Desertification: Nearly 39% of Iraq’s land is threatened by desertification, further exacerbating the water scarcity issue. As the land becomes less fertile and less habitable, many rural communities face the prospect of abandonment.
• Dust Storms: Frequent dust storms affect the health of millions of Iraqis, causing respiratory diseases and increasing hospitalisation rates. In 2022 alone, over 5,000 people were hospitalised due to the severity of these storms.
• Extreme Heat: Iraq is experiencing increasing temperatures, with projections suggesting an annual rise of 1.6°C. This increase puts stress on human health, agriculture, and overall quality of life, particularly in the southern and central regions of Iraq.
• Flash Floods: In addition to droughts, flash floods have become more frequent, displacing thousands and destroying agricultural land, further contributing to the trend of migration from affected regions.

• Livestock and Food Security: The scarcity of water and deteriorating pasture conditions have led to significant declines in livestock populations. This has affected the rural economy, reducing income for many farming families and contributing to their decision to migrate. The international community has noted that, in 2021 and 2022, crop failures exacerbated the decline in livestock populations in areas like Nineveh and Anbar, making traditional farming and livestock rearing unsustainable.
• Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production: Key crops such as wheat, barley, and dates, which form the foundation of Iraq’s agricultural exports, are highly susceptible to climate change. Reduced water availability, combined with increasing soil salinity, has led to a decrease in crop yields. As farming becomes less viable, many rural communities face increasing poverty and food insecurity, pushing them toward urban areas or foreign destinations in search of work.

• Urban Strain: This internal migration has created immense pressure on urban infrastructure. Cities like Baghdad and Basra are struggling to accommodate the influx, leading to overcrowded informal settlements. These settlements, often lacking basic services like water and electricity, exacerbate the challenges of urbanisation.

• Migration Routes and Risks: Many of these migrants travel irregularly, relying on personal savings or support networks rather than smugglers. However, the journey is fraught with danger. Recent tragedies, such as the capsizing of a boat carrying Kurdish migrants across the Mediterranean in 2024, highlight the extreme risks faced by those fleeing climate-induced hardships.